Options, Not Roadmaps
Since Shape Up came out, many people asked some version of this question: I understand you make bets six weeks at a time. But how do you plan in the longer term? Don’t you have some kind of a roadmap? The short answer is: no. We don’t have roadmaps. We think about what to do at the timescale larger than single bets, but we do it in a different way. Why not a roadmap? No matter how you try to hedge it, a roadmap communicates a plan—a series of commitments—to other people. We of course have lots of ideas about what we’re going to do next. But we don’t want to make any commitments, internally or externally. This is very important. What’s wrong with committing to future work? First, there’s the uncertainty. We don’t have a crystal ball. Say we have features A, B, and C we want to build. We don’t know if A is going to work out as planned, and what that would mean for B. We don’t know if we’ll have a eureka in the bathtub one day, and new idea X will suddenly feel much more import...


